In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency with no financial stakes. Throughout Europe and beyond, accessing Polymarket through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in prominence throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the sector's principal contenders stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly turnover. Most robust pricing in political and cryptocurrency categories |
| Markets | Exceeds 1,000 concurrent offerings. Spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | No platform fee. Bid-ask spreads range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon network (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional participants leveraging analytical advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi operates as America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market venue. It provides access for US-based participants who cannot utilise Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent American regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using play-money tokens ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction activities — yet it remains unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem encompasses more than 10,000 user-generated market offerings.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probability estimates contributed by its specialist community. Although no monetary incentives are involved, it excels as a venue for establishing forecasting credentials and analysing international developments. Academic institutions regularly reference its forecast quality in peer-reviewed studies.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the pioneering betting exchange model, processing vast sums across sports and electoral markets each year. Strengths include: standard currency settlement, FCA authorisation, substantial sports market depth. Limitations comprise: 2-5% commission assessed on net profits, absence of cryptocurrency markets, and comparatively restricted political market selection versus Polymarket and comparable platforms.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and worldwide seeking maximum trading liquidity alongside the most comprehensive market catalogue: Polymarket accessed via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain component while granting full access to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →