In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency at no cost. Throughout Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal selection.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This comparison examines how the sector's leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most substantial markets in political and cryptocurrency categories |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Encompasses politics, cryptocurrency, athletics, scientific research, and cultural events |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding US). Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional traders possessing analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi remains the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market accessible within the United States. It provides a pathway for American participants (who cannot access Polymarket) and continues expanding steadily. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") rather than actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent venue for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction exercises — yet it does not appeal to those seeking financial returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probability estimates sourced from its community of experienced forecasters. Although no monetary stakes are involved, it excels at establishing forecast accuracy records and addressing global risk scenarios. Researchers frequently cite Metaculus when examining prediction quality in academic literature.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair operates as the pioneering betting exchange, facilitating hundreds of billions across sports and electoral markets each year. Key strengths include: traditional currency support, FCA authorisation, substantial sports market depth. Key limitations: charges 2-5% commission on net gains, excludes digital asset markets, provides less political market coverage than Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and internationally seeking maximum trading depth and the broadest selection of available markets: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain element whilst granting full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order book. Start trading on PolyGram →