In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where traders buy YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Smart contracts handle all settlements automatically.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket functions as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in margin, you exchange positions with other participants who hold opposing views. The market price continuously reflects what the broader trading community believes the probability of an outcome to be — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you purchase shares representing possible outcomes. Each share is worth $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. When you acquire a YES share priced at $0.40, you're expressing the belief that the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. Success means your capital doubles; failure means your investment is forfeited.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers in that it operates without a built-in margin (the "vig"). Instead, market participants themselves determine pricing through their collective buying and selling activity.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution anchored to Ethereum). This architecture provides:
- Complete on-chain transparency and auditability of all activity
- Automated execution of deposits, trading operations, and distributions via smart contracts
- Immunity from fund seizure or outcome manipulation by platform operators
- Near-instantaneous settlement compared to traditional finance timescales
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively facilitates trading in USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a fixed 1:1 correspondence with the US dollar. Your account balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — each USDC unit perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Upon occurrence of a predicted event, Polymarket employs the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. An appointed "proposer" reports the result; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, payouts execute immediately. Should disputes arise, UMA token holders participate in a decentralised vote to determine the authoritative outcome.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and fulfil identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund your account through MoonPay, direct bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings spanning elections, athletics, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate holdings whenever you choose prior to final settlement
PolyGram streamlines this workflow via a mobile-optimised platform and passwordless email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional polling methodologies and professional analysts. Throughout the 2024 US election campaign, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed the accuracy of leading polling organisations. This superiority stems from participants deploying genuine capital, thereby creating powerful incentives for rigorous evaluation and honest prediction.