Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's product roadmap currently includes Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus as its named model tiers, with no publicly announced "Claude Mythos" release date or development timeline. The market settles if and when Anthropic officially designates a model as "Mythos" or "Mythos-class" and makes it available to the general public before 30 June 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects the absence of any official announcement, roadmap disclosure, or credible reporting suggesting such a model exists in development.

Anthropic's historical naming conventions favour stability over frequent tier introductions. The company released Opus in March 2024 as its flagship model, following earlier Claude 3 variants, and has maintained these designations for over a year without signalling imminent architectural rebranding. Comparable cases from OpenAI—which introduced GPT-4 Turbo and later GPT-4o without intermediate "mythological" naming schemes—suggest large labs prefer incremental versioning. The absence of "Mythos" in any earnings calls, investor presentations, or technical documentation from Anthropic since its $5 billion Series C funding round in September 2024 provides limited basis for near-term resolution.

Traders monitoring this market should track Anthropic's quarterly announcements, research publications, and job postings for references to new model architectures or naming frameworks. Recent venture funding announcements and competitive moves from OpenAI or Google DeepMind may prompt Anthropic to accelerate product cycles, though no such catalyst has materialised. Kalshi's KYC requirements and tighter settlement windows differ from Polymarket's approach; traders should verify platform-specific resolution criteria before positioning, as definitional disputes over "Mythos-class" designation could affect settlement outcomes across venues.

Methodology

We read Claude Mythos released on…? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.