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Bitcoin price on July 8?

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Bitcoin price on July 8?" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

62,000-64,000 51% 60,000-62,000 44% 58,000-60,000 3% 64,000-66,000 3% Volume: $237K Liquidity: $216K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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Bitcoin price on July 8?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
62,000-64,00051%
60,000-62,00044%
58,000-60,0003%
64,000-66,0003%
<52,0000%
52,000-54,0000%
54,000-56,0000%
56,000-58,0000%
66,000-68,0000%
68,000-70,0000%
>70,0000%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 51% probability to bitcoin price on july 8?. This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market wil…

Methodology

This page compares Bitcoin price on July 8? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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