Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2024 amid regional tensions and Houthi attacks on shipping. The market asks whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average across container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels tracked by IMF Portwatch—will recover to 60 or above by end-April 2026. Historical baseline transit calls averaged around 80–90 daily before the recent escalation, making 60 a partial-recovery threshold rather than a full normalisation benchmark.

The 0% crowd probability across prediction platforms reflects sustained uncertainty about regional de-escalation timelines. Comparable disruptions—the 2022 Russia-Ukraine blockade of Ukrainian grain exports and the 2011 Suez Canal closure—took 6–12 months to resolve fully, though partial recovery occurred within weeks. Traders should monitor announcements from the Houthis, US naval operations, and diplomatic initiatives from Iran and Gulf states. Reuters and Bloomberg regularly publish Portwatch data; any sustained uptick in transits above 55 daily would signal momentum toward the 60-call threshold. The settlement window extends 16 months, allowing time for geopolitical shifts, though current market pricing suggests participants assign minimal probability to normalisation within that frame.

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. PolyGram has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.