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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 74% Match Winner 66% Game 1 Winner 63% Game 2 Winner 63% Volume: $74K Liquidity: $923K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?74%
Match Winner66%
Game 1 Winner63%
Game 2 Winner63%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?62%
Any Player Ultra Kill52%
Any Player Rampage52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
O/U 2.5 Games46%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)44%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks32%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Any Player Ultra Kill30%
Any Player Ultra Kill29%
Any Player Rampage13%
Any Player Rampage8%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 74% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
Is Kalshi available in the UK?
Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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