Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs All Gamers (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO and All Gamers meet in the lower bracket quarterfinals of the Valorant Champions Tour China Stage 2 Playoffs on 20 August 2026. The best-of-three match determines who advances toward the regional finals; the loser is eliminated. The fixture is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, placing it during Chinese business hours where both organisations are based.
The 100% implied probability across major platforms reflects TYLOO's established standing within Chinese Valorant. TYLOO has competed consistently in VCT China since the league's inception and maintains a roster of players with international LAN experience. All Gamers, by contrast, represents a lower-seeded challenger emerging from earlier playoff rounds. Historical precedent in regional VCT brackets shows favourites at this probability level occasionally falter when facing motivated underdogs in elimination matches, though the gap between first and second-tier Chinese teams remains substantial. Comparable lower-bracket matchups in VCT APAC regions have occasionally produced upsets, though single-digit upset rates persist when seeding differentials are this pronounced.
Traders monitoring this market should track roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the settlement window closes on 20 August at 14:00 ET. Postponement clauses extend the rescheduling window to 3 September, creating tail-risk scenarios if technical issues or visa complications emerge. Polymarket and Kalshi structure this market identically regarding cancellation (50-50 resolution), though fee structures and KYC requirements differ between platforms—Kalshi's regulated US framework contrasts with Polymarket's offshore model, affecting which traders can access each book. Decimal odds conversions across Betfair and Smarkets will reflect the same underlying probability but display differently to users accustomed to fractional or percentage formats.
Methodology
We read Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
Trade Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stag… on Kalshi Alternative UK
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