Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June, with the match scheduled to kick off in North America. The current 62% YES probability on Polymarket reflects a significant backing of Haiti as the likely victor, a positioning that diverges notably from traditional sportsbooks where Scotland typically trades as the favourite. Kalshi's decimal odds format and Betfair's exchange model would express this differently—Betfair users would see Scotland's lay side more heavily backed—whilst Smarkets' commission structure incentivises tighter pricing around consensus. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for result confirmation across all platforms.

Haiti's recent competitive record provides limited precedent for assessing this fixture. The nation qualified for the 2026 tournament after a 32-year absence, having last competed in 1974. Scotland, conversely, reached the 2022 World Cup and has maintained UEFA qualification pathways, though their group-stage record remains mixed. The 62% probability appears to price Haiti's home-region advantage and Scotland's defensive vulnerabilities, though historical head-to-head data is sparse—the sides last met in 2012 in a friendly Scotland won 1–0.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026 and any late injury confirmations, particularly regarding Scotland's key midfield or forward personnel. Polymarket's KYC requirements differ from Kalshi's stricter US-focused verification, affecting liquidity pools and position limits across platforms. Weather conditions in the North American venue and pre-match team news in early June will likely shift probabilities in the final trading days.

Methodology

We read Haiti vs. Scotland from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.