US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market resolves positively if any portion of the agreement text becomes widely available to the public by 1 July 2026. The 90% implied probability reflects market confidence that at least some substantive text will enter public domain within a fortnight of the signing ceremony—a reasonable baseline given modern diplomatic practice, though the threshold of "widely available" introduces interpretive risk around what constitutes sufficient public circulation.

Historical precedent suggests asymmetric disclosure patterns in major US-Iran negotiations. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw the full text released within days of the announcement, though the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal and subsequent non-compliance created a decade of opacity around Iran's nuclear posture. More recently, the 2021 Vienna talks produced leaked drafts months before any official release. Current market pricing may underweight the possibility of a phased disclosure strategy, where executive summaries circulate immediately but full technical annexes remain restricted for weeks.

Traders should monitor State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry statements between 19 and 30 June for signals about transparency timelines. The UK, France, and Germany—if signatories or observers—typically pressure for rapid publication. Congressional notification requirements in the US often trigger leaks within 48 hours of formal briefings. Kalshi's KYC requirements and US-domiciled settlement may create friction compared to Betfair's international reach, though this market's binary outcome and clear resolution criteria reduce platform-specific arbitrage opportunities. Polymarket's decimal-odds display (around 10.0 for the 10% NO case) and lower fees may attract larger position sizes, potentially tightening spreads closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page compares US-Iran deal text released by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.