US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced an initial written pact to end hostilities, ease sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, committing both nations to a 60-day negotiation window toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. This interim deal, signed by President Donald Trump, mandates Tehran to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile and suspends key U.S. sanctions, allowing Iran to export oil freely while preserving the U.S. option to resume military action if negotiations falter[1][2].

Historically, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) achieved only partial sanctions relief in exchange for significant uranium enrichment cuts, with no permanent cessation of hostilities or strategic asset releases[1]. The current 1% market probability reflects scepticism that a mutually signed final instrument will emerge before August 2026, given past breakdowns when geopolitical tensions—such as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon—disrupted talks[7]. Unlike Polymarket’s decimal odds, Kalshi and Betfair express this as implied probability with stricter KYC requirements and higher fee structures, creating divergent liquidity profiles for this specific market.

Traders should monitor scheduled technical talks in Geneva, any announcements on frozen asset releases, and developments in Lebanon’s ceasefire, which Vice President Vance has tied to early negotiation progress[4]. A Reuters report confirms the draft includes a $25 billion asset release and oil sanctions waiver, contingent on final accord progress[3]. However, Republican lawmakers have already expressed concern over key provisions, suggesting potential legislative hurdles that could delay adoption[5]. With the settlement window ending 31 August 2026, the narrow timeframe amplifies the risk of non-signature, reinforcing the market’s low probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.