Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will convene for three scheduled policy meetings between March and June 2026, with traders assessing whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate will move either upward or downward from its current level. The 0% crowd probability on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no rate change will occur across all three meetings, a positioning that differs markedly from Kalshi's decimal odds representation on comparable Fed futures, where basis-point moves are priced with finer granularity. This divergence matters: Polymarket's binary YES/NO framework forces traders into an all-or-nothing stance, whilst Kalshi's structure permits hedging against partial moves that fall short of a full 25-basis-point adjustment.

Historical precedent suggests extended pause periods are plausible. The Fed held rates steady through five consecutive meetings in 2018 before cutting, and again maintained the same rate across multiple sessions in 2023–2024 during tightening cycles. Current inflation data and labour-market conditions will drive expectations; the Consumer Price Index release scheduled for late February 2026 and monthly employment reports will be critical signalling events. The March meeting agenda typically includes updated economic projections, which traders monitor for forward guidance shifts that may telegraph future moves without immediate action.

Betfair and Smarkets currently show lower trading volumes on Fed-specific binary contracts compared to Polymarket, reflecting their smaller US user bases despite lower KYC friction in some jurisdictions. The settlement window closing in June means traders face three distinct decision points with no opportunity to adjust positions between the final FOMC announcement and resolution.

Methodology

We read Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.