Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still the key choke-point here: the market only pays out **Yes** if IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals reaches at least 60 before the end of June 2026, and current pricing implies traders think that return to normal traffic is unlikely. IMF PortWatch itself flags the event as “trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to attacks on commercial ships” and says traffic has been reduced since 28 February 2026, which fits the low crowd probability.[4]

The historical comparison is the earlier phase of this same disruption, when reporting described traffic as a trickle after the US-Iran ceasefire and vessel movement remained far below normal.[3] Polymarket’s public framing for a closely related Hormuz shipping market said commercial transits were suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously.[8] Against that backdrop, a 9% YES price on this market is broadly consistent with the view that the route would need a rapid and sustained normalisation, not just a brief uptick. On other books, the same view is priced differently: Polymarket quotes the market as an implied probability, while Kalshi and Betfair typically show decimal-style pricing or contract prices, and fees, access and KYC requirements differ by venue, so the headline number is not directly comparable without adjusting for the platform.

Traders should watch for any de-escalation in regional security, changes in tanker routing, and especially whether carriers resume regular Gulf rotations rather than simply sending a few test sailings. The most relevant catalyst would be a sustained lift in reported transits that feeds through to IMF PortWatch’s 7-day average, because a single day above 60 would not be enough unless the moving average also clears the threshold.[4] Reuters reported in late April that traffic remained at a trickle amid the US-Iran deadlock, which shows how quickly political headlines can keep flows suppressed even after short-lived reopenings.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.