Market statistics
- Total volume
- $696K
- 24h volume
- $377K
- Liquidity
- $40K
- Open interest
- $9K
- Comments
- 1
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effec
Wikipedia Context
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Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman Al Saud, also known as MbS, is the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, formally serving as Crown Prince and Prime Minister. He is the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, the seventh son of King Salman, and the grandson of the nation's founder, Ibn Saud.
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Mohamed bin Zayed Al NahyanMohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also known as MBZ or MbZ, is an Emirati royal and politician who has served as the third president of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi since 2022 and was from 2014 until 2022 the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates.
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Mohammed bin Rashid Al MaktoumSheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is an Emirati politician and royal who is the current ruler of Dubai, and serves as the vice president and prime minister of the UAE. Mohammed succeeded his brother Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum as UAE vice president, UAE prime minister, and ruler of Dubai following the latter's death in 2006.
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Mohammed Ben SulayemMohammed Ahmad Sultan Ben Sulayem is an Emirati former rally driver and motorsports executive who serves as president of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), the governing body of many auto racing events including Formula One.
Methodology
We read Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. PolyGram has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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