"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

*Toy Story 5* is opening across North America, and the market settles on the film’s domestic three-day debut once The Numbers locks the final Friday-to-Sunday figure rather than a studio estimate. Current headlines put the range far above the crowd-implied 6% YES price: Variety says Disney and Pixar are targeting about $145 million to $150 million, while Deadline reports tracking had recently been trimmed to around $140 million from an earlier $150 million call.[1][3]

That context matters because animated franchise tentpoles can move sharply when pre-sales, family turnout and reviews line up, but the market is still trading well below the mainstream tracking band. Comparable coverage shows a wide spread in outside forecasts, from Deadline’s $140 million domestic view to Box Office Theory’s $158 million to $180 million range, with some commentary even floating $150 million to $175 million.[3][4][7] On Polymarket, that 6% YES is a straight implied-probability view; on Kalshi, the same event would usually be quoted in decimal-style contract pricing, while Betfair and Smarkets would express the same outlook as odds, with fees and KYC availability differing by venue.

Traders should watch the final Friday grosses, theatre count, and any late weekend revisions to tracking, because this market is sensitive to whether the film lands near the lower $140 million handle or surges into the $150 million-plus band.[1][3] The most important dependency is the final The Numbers “Daily Box Office Performance” entry for the June 19-21 weekend, since that is what will resolve the market, not industry chatter or opening-night reports.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.