Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz only counts as “back to normal” here if IMF Portwatch shows a seven-day average of at least 60 ship transits, so the key question is whether traffic sustains, rather than merely touches, that level before year-end. On Polymarket, the contract is priced at **56% YES**, which is broadly in line with recent readings on comparable markets; CNBC reported Kalshi traders at **43%** for a December return to normal on a slightly different date cut-off, while Polymarket sat near **59%** for the same year-end framing at the time. That gap reflects how these books can diverge on timing, spreads and fees: Polymarket typically shows a straight implied probability in cents, while Kalshi quotes contracts in cents too but often attracts a different trader mix; Betfair and Smarkets instead present decimal odds, with exchange-style commission and, in Betfair’s case, broader KYC and jurisdictional limits than a crypto-native venue.

Historically, the market is reading the Strait through a recovery story rather than a clean reopening story. Reporting through mid-2026 described traffic as still heavily disrupted, with Reuters saying in April that shipping was at a “near standstill”, and later coverage noting that mines and security risks could delay a full return to pre-crisis throughput even after diplomatic progress. That matters for traders because the market does not need a full pre-crisis normalisation: it resolves once Portwatch prints a qualifying 7-day moving average, which can happen before wider shipping conditions look fully restored.

The main catalysts are therefore operational and geopolitical, not just headline-driven. Traders should watch for any ceasefire enforcement, mine-clearing progress, naval security updates, and shifts in tanker routing or insurance terms, because those can feed through to Portwatch data with a lag. The contract can settle early as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes the qualifying average, so a brief spike above 60 is enough if it is sustained over the seven-day window and captured in the dataset.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?

Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.

Is Kalshi available in the UK?

Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.