Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since late February 2026, with Iran reversing a brief reopening after reported attacks on vessels, causing a near-standstill in transit calls for weeks and spiking oil prices globally[2][3]. This market hinges on whether the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of ship arrivals reaches 60 by July 31, 2026, a threshold currently implied at 48% probability by the crowd.

Historical precedents show that even after temporary reopenings, traffic rarely sustains the required volume; for instance, only 25 commercial vessels crossed on 18 June 2026, the highest since mid-April, yet this remains far below the 60-arrival target[4]. Past disruptions, such as those in April 2026, saw traffic drop sharply before any recovery, suggesting the current 48% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about a sustained rebound rather than a guaranteed outcome[7].

Traders must monitor Iran’s official announcements on waterway access, U.S. Central Command transit reports, and freight index movements, as these directly influence ship routing decisions[10]. Recent data indicates tanker traffic is picking up after slower flows, with 55 merchant ships transiting on a single Saturday, but this remains inconsistent with the 7-day average needed[10]. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi diverge here: Polymarket uses decimal odds with lower fees and no KYC, while Kalshi requires identity verification and offers implied probability pricing, affecting how each book frames the 48% chance[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.