Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next prime minister will be the person formally sworn in after the 2026 election, with any caretaker or interim arrangement excluded from settlement, so the market is really about coalition arithmetic rather than just who wins the most seats. On Polymarket, the contract is quoted as implied probability, while Kalshi typically shows a dollar price that maps to the same probability but is easier to compare only after adjusting for fees; Betfair and Smarkets, by contrast, trade in decimal odds, where the same 35% view is roughly 2.86 in fair odds before commission. KYC access also differs materially: Polymarket has typically been more crypto-native and jurisdiction-limited, while Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets operate under more formal account verification and regulatory frameworks.

Historical reading points to a two-horse race rather than a broad field. Reuters reported in June that Gadi Eisenkot had emerged as a serious challenger and could oust Benjamin Netanyahu, while other recent polling cited by JNS still had Netanyahu judged the more suitable leader by 53.3% to Eisenkot’s 26.5%[16][2]. That mix helps explain why the market has concentrated value around Netanyahu and Eisenkot, with Naftali Bennett as the main outside path if he can unify enough anti-Netanyahu votes. In practical terms, the current probability should be read as a coalition-formation assessment: the largest party may not supply the next prime minister if post-election alliances point elsewhere.

The key catalysts are the election date itself, any early dissolution of the Knesset, and the first post-vote coalition talks, because the contract only resolves when one person is officially appointed and sworn in. Traders should watch candidate lists, merger announcements and whether Netanyahu, Eisenkot or Bennett can assemble a governing bloc, since Reuters noted that Eisenkot’s new Yashar party was polling strongly but still short of a majority path[16]. Platform differences matter here: on Polymarket the market moves in continuous implied-probability terms, whereas on Betfair and Smarkets the same news can look different because liquidity, back-and-lay spreads and commission alter the visible price more than the underlying political odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?

Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.

Is Kalshi available in the UK?

Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.