Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The next Israeli prime minister will be whoever is formally sworn in after the 2026 election, and the market’s 32% crowd-implied probability suggests traders see a meaningful but far from dominant chance of a change in leadership. Under the market rules, caretaker arrangements do not count, so the key event is the first formal appointment after the election, not the campaign itself; that makes this closer to a settlement on coalition formation than on vote share alone.[1]

Historically, Israeli post-election outcomes have often hinged on coalition arithmetic, which is why election-day polling can overstate certainty. The current election is scheduled for 27 October 2026, but the market also resolves early if a snap election is called, adding another layer of timing risk.[1][2] Recent reporting has also underlined that Benjamin Netanyahu plans to stand again, with Le Monde noting on 15 June that he intends to seek re-election, which matters because incumbency, party discipline and alliance-building all feed into who can actually secure a swearing-in.[7]

For platform comparison, Polymarket typically expresses this kind of event as a direct implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets more often display decimal odds, so the same view can look numerically different across books even before fees. Kalshi’s US-regulated contracts and KYC gate mean access is narrower than on some offshore-style prediction venues, whereas Betfair Exchange and Smarkets depend more on local account availability and exchange commissions; in practice, that affects how quickly political information is priced rather than the underlying settlement rule.[1][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.