Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is still holding, with no confirmed US kinetic strike on Iranian soil to date. That is why the market is pinned near certainty: once a truce has survived the first period of implementation, the binary risk is less about broad diplomacy than a single, disqualifying event. Recent reporting has stressed how thin the arrangement remains, with Reuters describing it as dependent on reciprocal restraint and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In platform terms, Polymarket shows the outcome as a straight implied probability, while Kalshi and Betfair users often see the same view through slightly different pricing conventions and fee drag; Smarkets’ lower commission can leave tighter displayed spreads, even when the underlying consensus is identical.

Comparable ceasefires in the region have often traded as near-locks until a breach, then repriced abruptly on a single headline. Schwab noted that the latest truce sparked a relief rally, but also that headline risk remains elevated and energy and shipping conditions are still key signposts. For this market, the catalysts are not broad negotiations but whether the US or Israeli side publicly confirms any renewed strike, whether Iran resumes retaliation, or whether official language shifts from “temporary” to something more durable. Traders are also watching timetable risk: if talks extend, any scheduled review date can become a focal point for reassessment. On venues like Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets, the direction may be the same, but the practical difference is how quickly probability is repriced, and how much transaction cost is taken out of a near-certain outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Iran ceasefire continues through? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.