US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the

Current Probability

The Polymarket market "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?" is currently trading at 8% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 8%.

These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.

Why this market matters

Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 31 December 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.

How to trade this market step by step

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction). Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 8% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1250 if YES resolves true — a 1150% gross return.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds.

How active is this market?

$11.0M in lifetime turnover and $447K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book — the matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers. Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.

What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.

Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.

Risk note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.