Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: zachary svajda vs stefan kozlov. This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Stefan Kozlov in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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