Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 84% |
| Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| Spread -3.5 | 81% |
| Spread -4.5 | 79% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 79% |
| Spread -5.5 | 73% |
| Spread -6.5 | 72% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 65% |
| Spread -8.5 | 63% |
| Spread -10.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. Air Force: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Navy 1H O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Navy 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Navy 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 45% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -17.5 | 37% |
| O/U 41.5 | 37% |
| Spread -20.5 | 33% |
| O/U 43.5 | 32% |
| Air Force O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| O/U 55.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| O/U 61.5 | 29% |
| O/U 65.5 | 29% |
| O/U 67.5 | 29% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 25% |
| O/U 45.5 | 24% |
| Navy O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| Navy O/U 23.5 | 12% |
| Navy vs. Air Force | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -1.5 | 11% |
| O/U 51.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| O/U 53.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| O/U 57.5 | 5% |
| O/U 69.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 63.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of navy vs. air force. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Navy and Air Force, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Navy" if Navy win the game. This market will r…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $711K.
Methodology
This page compares Navy vs. Air Force specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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