Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs Black Phoenix (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 51.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs Walczaki (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Walczaki and ex-RUSTEC in the CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 7 at 7:00AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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