Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 61% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 46% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 45% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of france vs. sweden - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read France vs. Sweden - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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