Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| France Corners: O/U 4.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 67% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| France Corners: O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 59% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| France Corners: O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| France Corners: O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 36% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 25% |
Market context
Market consensus: 87% chance of france vs. sweden - total corners. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read France vs. Sweden - Total Corners from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade France vs. Sweden - Total Corners on Kalshi Alternative UK
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