Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 92% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 88% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 77% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 72% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 52% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of germany vs. paraguay - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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Trade Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props on Kalshi Alternative UK
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