Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 56% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mexico vs. england - player props stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Mexico vs. England - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Mexico vs. England - Player Props on Kalshi Alternative UK
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