Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for United States vs. Belgium - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read United States vs. Belgium - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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