Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 69% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 21.5 | 61% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 Winner | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby | 25% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby. This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Jenson Brooksby in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adam Walt…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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