Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread: Memphis (-8.5) | 100% |
| O/U 55.5 | 100% |
| Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| O/U 54.5 | 100% |
| O/U 53.5 | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 52.5 | 100% |
| Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| O/U 42.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 100% |
| O/U 48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 50.5 | 100% |
| O/U 56.5 | 100% |
| O/U 58.5 | 100% |
| O/U 60.5 | 100% |
| O/U 62.5 | 100% |
| O/U 64.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Memphis O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Carter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Manny Covey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kenyon Clay: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Marcus Stokes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trey Owens: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dallan Hayden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Summers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Tipton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chauncy Cobb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tychaun Chapman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brady Kluse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylen Bonelli: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nazeviah Burris: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler Little: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Alante Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jermane Hayes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jemyri Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jabari Bush: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Romel Stevens: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State vs. Memphis | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -24.5 | 0% |
| Spread -27.5 | 0% |
| Spread -31.5 | 0% |
| Spread -34.5 | 0% |
| O/U 66.5 | 0% |
| O/U 68.5 | 0% |
| O/U 70.5 | 0% |
| O/U 72.5 | 0% |
| O/U 74.5 | 0% |
| 2H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Arkansas State O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Arkansas State vs. Memphis. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 7:00PM ET: If Arkansas State wins, the market will resolve to "Arkansas State". If Memphis wins, the market will resolve to "Memphis…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $60K.
Methodology
This page compares Arkansas State vs. Memphis specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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