Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 33% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props on Kalshi Alternative UK
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