Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 72% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 62% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 59% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 37% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 26% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 24% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 7% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 6% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 4% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 96%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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