Sweden vs. Tunisia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with the match scheduled for North American venues during the tournament's opening phase. The 52% implied probability on Polymarket reflects moderate confidence in a Swedish victory, though the decimal-odds representation across Betfair and Smarkets may display this differently depending on whether you're viewing win, draw, or loss markets separately. Kalshi's binary YES/NO structure aligns more closely with Polymarket's framing here, whereas traditional sportsbooks split the outcome into three-way markets, which can obscure comparative probability readings for traders moving between platforms.

Historical head-to-head records show Sweden holds a slight edge in competitive fixtures, though Tunisia has demonstrated improved defensive organisation in recent World Cup campaigns. Sweden's qualification pathway and squad depth relative to Tunisia's typically suggest favourability, yet group-stage football remains volatile; Tunisia reached the 2018 World Cup knockout stages and has shown capacity to trouble established sides. The current probability sits within the range expected for a moderately favoured European team facing African opposition, though not at the extreme confidence levels seen in matches between top-ranked sides.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through spring 2026, particularly regarding Sweden's attacking depth and Tunisia's goalkeeper fitness. Fixture scheduling—including kickoff time and venue climate—will influence match conditions closer to June. Fee structures vary materially: Polymarket charges 2% on settlement, whilst Kalshi's flat-fee model and Betfair's commission tiers (typically 5–6% on winnings) will affect net returns on positions held through the settlement window.

Methodology

This page compares Sweden vs. Tunisia specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.