Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
54% | 46% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
54% | 46% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 1 Winner | 54% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht | 51% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Match O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| Completed Match | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 54% YES probability for ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht. This market refers to the tennis match between Dominik Kellovsky and Leonid Sheyngezikht in the ITF Men Nova Gorica, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
This page compares ITF Nova Gorica: Dominik Kellovsky vs Leonid Sheyngezikht specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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