Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 95% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 88% |
| Game 1 Winner | 84% |
| Game 2 Winner | 83% |
| Game 3 Winner | 83% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 73% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 70% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 61% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 59% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 10% |
Market context
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 95%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 11:00PM ET. This market will …
Methodology
We read LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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