Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 76% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 74% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Game 1 Winner | 66% |
| Game 2 Winner | 65% |
| Game 3 Winner | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game 4 Winner | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 57% |
| Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 56% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 55% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 36% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 31% |
| Game Handicap: KT (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 9% |
Market context
Market consensus: 76% chance of lol: kt rolster vs hanjin brion (bo5) - lck play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between KT Rolster and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Play-In, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This page compares LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Play-In specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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