🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Which venue prices "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Match Winner 75% First Blood in Game 1? 72% Game 2 Winner 67% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? 67% Volume: $167K Liquidity: $233K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
Open live market →
LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 75% 25% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 75% 25% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner75%
First Blood in Game 1?72%
Game 2 Winner67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
O/U 3.5 Games66%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?42%
Any Player Quadra Kill39%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?39%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Any Player Quadra Kill35%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?29%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?28%
Any Player Penta Kill22%
Any Player Penta Kill22%
Any Player Penta Kill22%

Market context

The LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 75% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

We read LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

Trade LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invita… on Kalshi Alternative UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Kalshi Alternative UK.

See all markets →