Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 87% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 71% |
| Game 1 Winner | 71% |
| Game 2 Winner | 71% |
| Game 3 Winner | 71% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 68% |
| Game 4 Winner | 63% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 62% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 62% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 61% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 60% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 60% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 60% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 38% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 36% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 23% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 87% probability to lol: t1 vs karmine corp (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between T1 and Karmine Corp in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 28 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page compares LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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