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MLB: Doubles Leader

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "MLB: Doubles Leader" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

James Wood 27% Josh Jung 23% Kevin McGonigle 19% Willy Adames 10% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $27K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Doubles Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 27% 73% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 27% 73% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
James Wood27%
Josh Jung23%
Kevin McGonigle19%
Willy Adames10%
Matt Olson10%
Bobby Witt Jr.8%
Freddie Freeman7%
Ernie Clement5%
Ezequiel Tovar4%
Nico Hoerner3%
Mauricio Dubón3%
Taylor Ward2%
Bo Bichette2%
Bryan Reynolds2%
Francisco Lindor2%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.2%
Gavin Sheets1%
Casey Schmitt1%
Pete Alonso1%
Jarren Duran1%
Maikel Garcia1%
Pete Crow-Armstrong1%
Salvador Perez1%
Bryce Harper1%
Ian Happ1%
Juan Soto1%
George Springer1%
Corbin Carroll1%
Riley Greene1%
Colt Keith0%
Christian Walker0%
Adley Rutschman0%
Rhys Hoskins0%
Gabriel Moreno0%
Brent Rooker0%
CJ Abrams0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Aaron Judge0%
Andy Pages0%
Nick Kurtz0%
Yordan Alvarez0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Other0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: doubles leader stands at 27% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve ac…

Methodology

We read MLB: Doubles Leader from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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