Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 38.5 | 88% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 42.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| O/U 44.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| Bills vs. Raiders | 69% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 50.5 | 60% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 60% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| O/U 64.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Bills vs. Raiders — current market-implied probability: 97%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game. This market will resolve to "Raiders" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $184K.
Methodology
This page compares Bills vs. Raiders specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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