Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 37.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| O/U 40.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 62% |
| Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 48.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 50.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 51.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| O/U 52.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| O/U 53.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| O/U 55.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 21% |
| O/U 57.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 62.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Patriots vs. Jaguars. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 41% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $223K.
Methodology
This page compares Patriots vs. Jaguars specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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