Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-1.5) | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5) | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hammarby Fotboll and RSC Anderlecht met in the UEFA Europa League qualifying round at 3Arena, with the match finishing 1-1 after the scheduled 17:00 UTC kick-off. That result matters for the “More Markets” contract because a 1% crowd-implied YES price suggests the market was already treating an additional, closely specified outcome as very unlikely before settlement, and in a low-liquidity football side market small team-news shifts can move the implied probability sharply. [1]
Comparable European qualifying ties tend to be priced more conservatively on prediction venues than on traditional sportsbooks, because traders are reacting to event-definition risk as much as match quality: whether the extra market resolves from cards, corners, substitutions, or another stat can matter more than the raw fixture itself. On Polymarket, the crowd view is shown directly as implied probability, whereas Kalshi typically frames contracts in dollar terms and Betfair/Smarkets quote decimal odds, so the same underlying view can look different once exchange commission and spread are included; that makes a 1% YES on one platform less directly comparable than a low decimal price on another. [1]
The main catalysts are official line-ups, late injury or rotation news, and any clarification of the exact “More Markets” settlement criteria before the 17:00 UTC window closes. For this match, the decisive dependency was the confirmed Europa League qualifier itself rather than a long-running schedule issue, but traders on Kalshi, Betfair, or Smarkets also have to factor access rules and KYC coverage, since not every platform is available in every jurisdiction and fee treatment can alter the effective price even when the headline probability is the same. [1]
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page compares Hammarby Fotboll vs. RSC Anderlecht - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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