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Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Cross-platform snapshot for "Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 100% Volume: $395K Liquidity: $544K Closes: 25 Jul 2026
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Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.551%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.551%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)49%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)44%
Map 2 Winner37%
O/U 2.5 Games25%
Match Winner14%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.51%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)0%
Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.50%

Market context

The Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant match between FURIA Esports and NRG in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 24 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esport…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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