Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith | 35% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith. This market refers to the tennis match between Lea Ma and Alana Smith in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 3:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Le…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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