Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 95% |
| Game 1 Winner | 91% |
| Game 2 Winner | 90% |
| Game 3 Winner | 89% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 74% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 54% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 48% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 47% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 41% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 36% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 36% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 22% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 20% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 20% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 16% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 5% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 4% |
Market context
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 98%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Hanwha Life Esports and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 2 at 11:00PM E…
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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