Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to play an MLB game at Citi Field in Queens on 22 June at 7:10 PM ET, with the Cubs currently favoured to win. Traditional bookmakers list the Cubs moneyline at -117, implying roughly a 54% chance, while the prediction market shows a 47% YES probability for the Cubs, reflecting a notable divergence in crowd sentiment versus professional odds[1].

Historically, when prediction markets and sportsbooks diverge by over 5% on MLB moneylines, the market often corrects within 24 hours unless a key variable shifts, such as a starting pitcher change or weather disruption. In similar 2025 matchups between these teams, the Cubs won three of four games despite initial underdog pricing, suggesting the current 47% may be undervalued given their balanced roster and recent form[2].

Traders should monitor the official starting lineups for Jacob deGrom (Cubs) and Cole Hamels (Mets), as deGrom’s 3.26 ERA could tighten the Cubs’ win probability if he remains on the mound[6]. Additionally, check for any postponement notices, as the game was previously flagged as postponed on ESPN, which would keep the market open until completion[3]. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, with the over priced at -113, indicating expectations for a high-scoring contest that could influence late-game betting dynamics[1]. On platforms like Polymarket, odds are shown as decimal probabilities with minimal fees and no KYC, whereas Kalshi requires identity verification and uses implied probability with higher fees, creating distinct liquidity patterns for this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.