New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets travel to Miami on 24 May for a regular-season matchup against the Marlins, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. The current 40% implied probability for a Mets victory reflects modest confidence in the visiting side, though the settlement window extends to 31 May to accommodate any postponement. Across major platforms, this market illustrates divergent approaches to odds presentation: Polymarket displays decimal odds (approximately 1.67 for a Mets win at 40% probability), whilst Kalshi and Betfair present American moneyline formats, with Smarkets offering decimal equivalents. Fee structures vary materially—Kalshi charges a flat 2% on winnings, Polymarket takes 2% on both sides, and Betfair's commission scales with liquidity—affecting effective returns on positions held through settlement.

Historical context matters here. The Mets have won roughly 48% of their matchups against Miami since 2020, a marginal advantage that aligns loosely with the current 40% market price, suggesting modest undervaluation of the Mets if recent form favours them. The Marlins' home-field advantage typically shifts win probability by 2–3 percentage points in their favour, which the market may already be pricing in.

Key variables for traders include starting pitcher announcements (typically confirmed 24–48 hours before game time), weather conditions in Miami that could affect play, and any late roster moves due to injury. Recent reports from MLB.com should be monitored for bullpen availability and recent performance trends. The resolution mechanism here is straightforward—official MLB statistics determine the outcome—though the 50-50 tie clause is rarely invoked in modern baseball.

Methodology

This page compares New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.