Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will travel to face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular-season fixture on 24 May 2026. The match falls within the North American regular season, typically contested between late February and October. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket suggests near-certainty that the event will occur as scheduled, though this reflects settlement mechanics rather than match outcome confidence. Across platforms, this distinction matters: Kalshi's binary YES/NO structure and Betfair's lay-betting model both allow traders to express scepticism about fixture completion, whereas Polymarket's design can compress low-probability cancellation scenarios into the margin.

Historical precedent shows MLS fixtures rarely cancel outright. Since 2020, weather postponements and COVID-related deferrals have affected fewer than 2% of regular-season matches league-wide. Philadelphia's PPL Park and Miami's Inter Miami CF Stadium both maintain modern drainage and pitch maintenance standards. The 100% reading likely reflects this institutional reliability rather than certainty about match conditions on the day. Traders on Smarkets and Betfair typically price fixture completion separately from outcome markets, allowing granular risk assessment; Polymarket bundles these into a single contract.

Key catalysts include team roster announcements, injury updates, and any weather alerts issued in the week before 24 May. MLS fixture schedules rarely shift once published, though international competition windows occasionally trigger rescheduling. Fee structures diverge materially: Kalshi charges a flat 2% maker/taker fee, whilst Polymarket and Betfair operate on percentage-based models that reward volume. For this low-volatility completion market, fee drag will dominate trader returns.

Methodology

This page compares Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.