Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 65% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 51% |
| New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| New York Red Bulls (-1.5) | 16% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 9% |
| New York Red Bulls (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to new york red bulls vs. nashville sc - more markets. More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for August 19 at 7:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We read New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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