Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bologna will host Inter Milan in a Serie A fixture on 24 May 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability on Polymarket standing at 26% for a Bologna victory. This represents the implied odds of approximately 2.84 in decimal format, though Kalshi's equivalent market (if offered) would display the same probability differently depending on its contract structure—Kalshi typically uses binary YES/NO contracts with explicit percentage pricing rather than decimal odds. Betfair and Smarkets, by contrast, display decimal odds natively (3.84 for a 26% outcome), which can create perception gaps between platforms even when underlying probabilities align. Fee structures also diverge: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, whilst Kalshi operates a flat commission model on notional value, and traditional bookmakers like Betfair apply variable commission based on market liquidity.

Historically, Bologna's home record against top-six sides in Serie A has been mixed; their recent seasons show inconsistent performances against Inter, who remain favourites despite fixture congestion late in the campaign. The 26% probability reflects Inter's superior squad depth and recent form, though home advantage at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara carries measurable weight in Italian football. Traders should monitor team news around injury status—particularly for Bologna's key attacking players—and Inter's European commitments in the weeks preceding the match, as fixture congestion frequently impacts performance in May fixtures. Recent Serie A standings and any managerial changes announced before the settlement window closes will also influence market repricing across platforms.

Methodology

This page compares Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.