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World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

Which venue prices "World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

62% YES 38% NO Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $520K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
Trade on Kalshi Alternative UK →
World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Kalshi Alternative UK Pick
polygram.ink
 62% 38% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on Kalshi Alternative UK →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 62% 38% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on Kalshi Alternative UK →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on Kalshi Alternative UK →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on Kalshi Alternative UK →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on Kalshi Alternative UK →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Kalshi Alternative UK.

Active sub-markets

Mexico62% YES39% NO
DR Congo16% YES85% NO
South Korea40% YES61% NO
South Africa5% YES95% NO
Portugal69% YES32% NO
Czechia13% YES88% NO

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 62% YES probability for World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round o…

Methodology

This page compares World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?
Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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